Yards Carries Louisville Into Football

NCAA Football Betting Lines

Shreveport, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - James Franklin ran for two touchdowns and threw for another, leading Missouri to a 41-24 win over North Carolina in Monday's Independence Bowl. Franklin finished with 142 yards on the ground and 132 through the air for the Tigers (8-5), who used 31 straight first-half points to grab a decisive advantage. They recorded four straight wins to close the season, their last in the Big 12 before a move to the SEC.

 

North Carolina scored on its opening drive, capitalizing on Sean Tapley's kickoff return to midfield with Renner's 22-yard touchdown pass to Dwight Jones.

 

T.J. Moe brought the ensuing kick out to his own 42, then tossed a touchdown pass to Wes Kemp six plays later. The 40-yard strike came on a halfback pass and initiated the game-deciding run.

 

Thomas Moore's field goal made it 31-10 at the half. The 21-yard kick came after the Tar Heels failed to take advantage of a 1st-and-goal from the two- yard line.

 

The teams traded touchdowns in the third quarter, as Renner hit Boyd for a 44- yard score and Franklin crossed the goal line from two yards out the ensuing drive.

 

Game Notes

 

Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Louisville Cardinals and NC State Wolfpack will collide at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte in the 2011 Belk Bowl. This postseason game was formerly called Continental Tire Bowl (2002-04) and Meineke Car Care Bowl (2005-10). Charlie Strong is in his second season at the helm at Louisville and has his team playing in the postseason for the second straight time, just the third coach in school history to achieve that. The Cardinals began the 2011 season slow with four losses in the first six games, but turned things around over the second half of the season, five wins over the last six outings, including topping Connecticut and USF to close out play and earn a share of the Big East title.

 

Much like the Cardinals, Tom O'Brien's Wolfpack needed a strong second half of the season to reach the postseason. NC State had just four wins heading into November, but won three of its last four games to close out the year, including a marquee win over Clemson (37-13). The team finished in the middle of the pack in the ACC at 4-4.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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