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11/16/2011 - Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, November 20. Race: Ford 400. Site: Homestead-Miami Speedway. Track: 1.5-mile oval. Start time: 3:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 267. Miles: 400.5. 2010 Winner: Carl Edwards. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.
Three-two-one.
No, we're not doing the countdown for a rocket launch.
It's the point separation between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart heading into the Sprint Cup Series season-finale on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Edwards currently holds a three-point lead over Stewart. They are the only drivers who remain in championship contention.
With a newer and simpler scoring format this year, Edwards' present lead over Stewart roughly translates to 13 points under the previous points system. That makes it the slimmest margin between the top-two drivers going into the final race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup since NASCAR began its playoff format for its premier series in 2004. It's also the third-closest separation since the inception of the position-based points structure in 1975.
Last year, Denny Hamlin held a 15-point lead over Jimmie Johnson when the series arrived at Homestead, which was the closest margin in the Chase finale. Johnson's second-place finish compared to a 14th-place run for Hamlin allowed Johnson to clinch his record-extending fifth straight Sprint Cup championship by a 39-point margin.
Edwards and Stewart have been duking it out in the last two races.
Earlier this month, Stewart won at Texas and moved to within three points of Edwards, who finished second there. The points margin between the two remained the same after Edwards placed second and Stewart third at Phoenix.
"It's fun when we're first and second in the points. and we're running first and second on the racetrack the last two weeks," Stewart said. "It shows why we're both in this position.
"We just got to keep doing what we're doing. We got to keep the pressure on. Two weeks in a row we've led the most laps, and I'm really proud of that. Proud of the pressure we're putting on him. A lot can happen in 400 miles [at Homestead]."
Edwards has finished no worse than 11th in the Chase so far this year. He took over the points lead after Kansas -- the fourth race in the playoffs -- and has remained atop the standings since then.
After winning the first two Chase races -- Chicagoland and New Hampshire -- Stewart lost his momentum by finishing 25th at Dover and then 15th at Kansas. He had dropped to seventh in the point standings. But Stewart has steadily bounced back since then, scoring five straight top-10 finishes, including victories at Martinsville and Texas.
"It's neat to me that Tony and the guys on the 14 are running so well, won so many races and performing on a high level," Edwards said. "It's going to mean more if we're able to beat them in this championship because of that, to beat Tony and those guys at their peak.
"I can truthfully say this is the best Chase we've ever had. We haven't gone out and got the trophies that we have in other Chases, but we've performed better than we ever have. If they're beating us, they're beating us at our best, and I think that's pretty neat."
If Edwards wins at Homestead, he will be guaranteed of his first Sprint Cup championship. Edwards has two victories at this track -- 2008 and 2010. He also has an average finish of 5.7 in seven races here.
"Homestead is going to be a lot of fun," he said. "I really enjoy racing there. The cool thing about Homestead, you're going to be able to move around, pass and not get hung up as badly in traffic as you can at other racetracks. For the sport in general, I don't think there's a better place to go than Homestead to fight for this championship."
Stewart won the first two Cup races at Homestead from 1999-2000, when the racetrack had a flat, rectangular configuration based on Indianapolis Motor Speedway's layout. Homestead, a 1.5-mile track, was reconfigured in 2003, with banking in the turns increased variably to 18-20 degrees.
Stewart's average finish at Homestead is 12.4. He is one of four active drivers in the series that has competed in all 12 races here.
"I like Homestead," he said. "It's a place that we had a lot of success when it was flat. We haven't got that win with it banked. I like the way that track races right now."
Stewart is attempting to win his third series championship. He won it in 2002 and '05. If Stewart clinches the title this weekend, he would join David Pearson, Lee Petty, Darrell Waltrip and Cale Yarborough as the drivers with three championships. He would also become just the second driver and owner titleholder. Alan Kulwicki accomplished the feat first in 1992.
"It's just about getting four more points than he does; that's all that matters," Stewart said.
Stewart does have one advantage over Edwards in the title fight right now. If the two were to end up in a points tie after Homestead, Stewart would be awarded the championship based on his four wins this season -- all of them coming in the Chase. Edwards has only one win for the season, which came in March at Las Vegas, a track similar to Homestead.
Three-two-one. Who wants it the most?
"There would be nothing better than coming down the last lap side-by-side racing for the win; that would be really fun," Edwards said.
Forty-eight teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 400.
<< This Week in Auto Racing November 18 - 20
Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - All three of NASCAR's national touring series
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<< In the FCS Huddle: Committee agonizes over final picks
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Dillon looking to win truck title at Homestead >>
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New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oakland Raiders running back Michael Bush has
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Maddon, Gibson win Manager of the Year awards >>
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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