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03/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When people find out you're a golf writer, in the last few months, the inevitable question varies in form, but mostly sounds like this:
"What's up with Tiger?"
Hard to answer, but the smarter fans always wanted to know when he'd come back. That question was answered on Tuesday with Woods' announcement that he will be in the field for the Masters in a few weeks.
It's been my contention all along that he wouldn't miss Augusta. Perhaps I'm a tad jaded in my outlook on life, but I couldn't see Tiger missing a major championship.
Score one for the bald guy.
"The major championships have always been a special focus in my career and, as a professional, I think Augusta is where I need to be, even though it's been awhile since I last played," Woods said in his statement on Tuesday.
I wouldn't use the word "need" when it relates to a golf tournament and you being, there considering the degree to which you publicly humiliated your wife. Maybe both the word choice, and the timing of the comeback, were Ari Fleischer's doing.
(Also, the Masters is the safe choice because it's a very controlled environment with regard to the media.)
Some pundits with purer souls than my own believed Woods would sit out at least the Masters. Maybe they were swayed by his "performance" in his press/friends-and-family gaggle, but I never saw it that way.
Some believed he should sit out the Masters just to show how serious he was about building the family structure. So the rationale there is, just as a show, sit out the Masters so people will believe you are serious about repairing your life. If you really wanted to repair your family life, that would be good too, but just sit out the Masters and then everyone will believe you're serious.
Why bother? Tiger is a professional golfer and professional golfers don't miss major championships, especially a guy who plastered pictures of Jack Nicklaus on his wall as a kid. The goal is that major championship record.
There's no timetable for this. Hey, you cheated on your wife, that costs you the Masters. Or you're delinquent in child support, you must skip the Masters and U.S. Open.
No one but Tiger, perhaps Elin and maybe his therapist know what's really on Tiger's mind. But remember that not even one month ago, Woods uttered these words:
"I do plan to return to golf one day," Woods said on Feb. 19. "I just don't know when that day will be. I don't rule out that it will be this year."
So we went from maybe this year to six weeks? That happened quick. He must have gotten a whole lot better in that month. According to some reports, Woods was out of therapy the next week. To some, it might ring a tad disingenuous.
Maybe it's time to stop giving Woods the benefit of the doubt. He skipped probably four events he would've played if he hadn't gotten caught. While I'm sure Woods wouldn't mind having another Sarazen Trophy on his mantle for the CA-Championship, it's nothing compared to that green jacket.
I'm no marriage counselor and quite frankly it's Tiger's business when he feels he's ready to come back, but, that press joke a few weeks ago didn't show a guy who seemed ready to get back to the rigors of major championships.
Was he blowing smoke there? Yes, and it's clear that his focus has never totally left the world of professional golf. It's refreshing that he went to therapy, for whatever the reason. And, everyone should root for reconciliation with his wife if it's still possible, but let's not lose sight of the big picture as Woods sees it.
There's no sense in a token skipping of the Masters to show contrition to the skeptical masses. Woods won't be missing anything that truly mattered to him, and since his motivations will be questioned at every turn anyway, Woods might as well play Augusta.
RANDOM THOUGHTS
- CBS has to be a tad excited about this announcement. Ratings will be other worldly.
- I think an underrated aspect of this whole Woods saga is how galleries will respond. I imagine after some spectators partake of a few cocktails, Tiger may hear some gentlemen saying some unpleasant things about Perkins parking lots and the volume of waitresses there. All earned, by the way.
- My apologies, Ernie Els. My column contending that you have a good run left in the tank was going to be fantastic.
- Movie moment - How do guys in the Star Wars movies have British accents? Luke grew up on a desert planet, some characters come from an ice planet, and the other grew up in a flat in Liverpool?
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Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.
New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.
His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.
HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.
The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.
RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.
First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.
The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.
These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.
New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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