Vandy downs Georgia in SEC QFs

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/13/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Jenkins poured in a career-high 25 points to lead the 20th-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores to a 78-66 victory over the Georgia Bulldogs in the quarterfinal round of the Southeastern Conference Tournament.

Jermaine Beal pitched in 16 points for Vanderbilt (24-7), the East Division's second seed, which will do battle with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (W-1) in Saturday's semifinal round. The Commodores also got 10 points from A.J. Ogilvy.

"We've had very competitive games with Georgia both times this season, and tonight was not an exception," Vanderbilt coach Kevin Stallings said. "We're happy to win. We're happy to move on."

Travis Leslie exploded for a career-high 34 points in defeat for Georgia (14-17), the East Division's sixth seed. Trey Thompkins added 13 points for the Bulldogs.

"They were definitely the more aggressive team to start off," Georgia guard Ricky McPhee said. "We just got behind and just weren't able to make that run to come back and take the lead."

Vanderbilt went on a 14-4 run midway through the first half to take a 22-13 advantage.

Georgia fought back and owned its largest lead of the game with 5:35 remaining in the first half, a two-point advantage (25-23). Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Vanderbilt closed the opening stanza with a 12-2 run and led 35-27 at intermission despite shooting only 35.3 percent from the field.

Over the final 20 minutes, the Commodores connected on 55.2 percent of their field goal attempts, including 5-of-8 from three-point range, en route to the double-digit victory.

Vanderbilt earned a 43-32 rebounding advantage in the tilt and limited Georgia to 3-of-16 shooting from three-point range, two obvious factors in the Commodores' success.

Leslie connected on 12-of-23 shots from the floor in the contest, but the rest of the Georgia team combined to shoot a lackluster 12-of-36.

Game Notes

Georgia and Vanderbilt split a pair of meetings during the regular season, and the Commodores own an 82-47 advantage in the all-time series between the teams...Vanderbilt won its only SEC title back in 1951 and is set to face a Mississippi State squad that captured the most recent of its three SEC championships last season...The Commodores move into the semifinal round of the SEC Tournament for the first time since 2004...Andre Walker pulled down 10 rebounds for Vanderbilt, his fourth double-digit career rebounding total.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.